Forecast Discussion

954
FXUS64 KMEG 131142
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms are expected as early
  as Saturday afternoon and may continue into the overnight hours
  Sunday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern and
  heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday, with temperatures falling into the
  mid-70s to low 80s for Monday.

- An unsettled pattern persists through next week ahead of another
  cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A few showers have developed near sunrise, mainly south of the I-
40 corridor. This trend will likely continue through the morning,
with little impacts expected. Otherwise, a rather warm day is
still on tap across the Mid-South with high temperatures surging
into the low to mid 90s by the afternoon. After some internal
collaboration, opted to issue a Heat Advisory for portions of
eastern AR and into the MS delta mainly for this afternoon where
heat index values could reach 105 or higher. While there are some
lower probabilities further east, any early convection or
convection this afternoon could play spoiler so did not include
those additional counties. As for our severe weather threat for
today, the Slight Risk (2/5) area was expanded further into the
Mid-South, covering generally our northern two rows of counties
and the Marginal Risk (1/5) was extended to the TN/MS state line.
While confidence is generally still low with respect to timing,
if the threat materializes, damaging wind gusts remain the main
concern. Overnight guidance still remains a bit spread on timing,
but the most favorable solution at this point would be the
potential for two rounds: one this afternoon into the evening and
another overnight into Sunday morning. If the afternoon/evening
threat materializes, the overnight round would likely be not as
impactful. However, if the earlier threat does not materialize
this could open the door for a more potent overnight round.
Anything that develops today will be seen ahead of time to our
northwest, so this will be something to watch through the rest of
the day.

CMA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have come to an end across the Mid-
South as a stalled frontal boundary remains kinked across
northwest Tennessee and into central Arkansas. This front will
wiggle slightly south through the night before continuing its
ascent north early Saturday morning. A few WAA advection showers
may initiate along the leading edge of the boundary, but
generally dry conditions are expected until tomorrow afternoon.
An MCS will take a dive across northern portions of the region
tomorrow afternoon.

Ahead of this MCS, low to medium (50% or less) probabilities of
severe weather ingredients exist. The higher probabilities (30-
50% range) exist along the KY/TN border around 4 PM. The GFS and
HRRR models are much more aggressive with this activity with over
2000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear is a bit higher than previous days with
around 30kts across northwest TN. A damaging wind threat could
emerge tomorrow afternoon with 60-65 mph gusts as the main
concern. A cold front will trail shortly behind the MCS bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night.
Current CAMs have the better forcing heading towards middle TN,
but there is a possibility of another round of strong storms
across the same area. The cold front will continue to sink
southeast in the early hours on Sunday. This front will stall out
briefly across middle MS on Monday bringing lingering rain
chances to southeast AR and north MS. Northern portions of the
area should be mostly dry on Monday and for most of the day on
Tuesday. Monday will be a bit cooler with below normal highs in
the mid 70s and low 80s.

Broad troughing from Canada across most of the central CONUS will
aim another cold front at the Mid-South by midweek. Timing of the
frontal passage, however, continues to change each subsequent
model run.  Previous days had this front crossing the area on
Wednesday, where joint probabilities of severe weather
ingredients peak for the week between 40-60%. This model sweep
has the front passing through on Thursday before stalling out
along the I-40 corridor. This will be something to keep an eye on
for sure, but general consensus is that unsettled weather will
stick around for the next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across the Mid-South with a few
showers near MEM as of 1130z, which are expected to diminish in
coverage through mid morning. These conditions will then remain
through the rest of the day with southwesterly winds between 5 -
10 knots. The TAF period becomes more active beyond 22z - 00z
with the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms through
the end of the period at all terminals. However, model
consistency has been poor regarding both the timing, coverage,
and placement of storms, which has kept confidence considerably
low. Therefore, have maintained PROB30s to cover convection in
two rounds that could produce MVFR impacts: 1) between 22z - 06z
and 2) a second round prior to 12z Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Elevated humidity levels will preclude fire weather concerns this
forecast period. In addition, wetting rain chances will persist
through the weekend into the beginning of next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB