SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1118

MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 325... FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 1118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 131303Z - 131500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts
will likely continue over the next couple of hours from southeast
Nebraska into southwest Iowa and far northwest Missouri. As the
storms move toward the edge of Watch 325, additional watch issuance
will likely need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a strong
line segment ongoing to the west of Omaha. The line is located at
the northern end of a pocket of moderate instability, analyzed by
the RAP from northeastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCAPE
within this corridor is estimated to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range. In addition, the RAP shows a plume of steep mid-level lapse
rates (in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range) extending eastward from
northwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska. This environment will
continue to support an isolated large hail threat this morning. In
addition, a potential will exist for isolated severe gusts, and this
threat could increase if the line can become more organized. The
threat may tend to move more southeastward into far northwest
Missouri, favoring the eastern edge of the stronger instability.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39719507 39909595 40139664 40529748 40929764 41199757
            41619716 41799659 41789623 41339522 40869438 40539401
            40039408 39739451 39719507 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN